The global food system is currently under unprecedented pressure. Climate change, ongoing conflicts, and trade tensions between various countries are intensifying this pressure. Recent new research indicates that this situation could give rise to more widespread conflicts in the future. However, the most crucial point highlighted by the research is that the primary risk is not food scarcity itself, but rather how peacefully societies will be able to adapt to this rapidly changing situation, which will determine the future course. The livelihoods and stability of millions of people worldwide now depend on our ability to confront this complex challenge.
Severe droughts and extreme weather events are causing significant damage to crop production in many regions of the world. A strong El Niño situation threatens to exacerbate food shortages for billions of people in the coming year. At the same time, various wars and geopolitical tensions are disrupting the supply chains of food and agricultural products, hindering global food movement. This crisis, caused by climate change, is not only reducing food production but also directly impacting the natural resources of various regions. Experts warn that if this trend continues, a more dire situation could arise in the near future.
The war in Ukraine, in particular, has repeatedly shaken global grain markets, leading to an abnormal increase in food prices. On the other hand, the impact of the Iran war on the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the prices of fuel and fertilizers, significantly increasing the production costs for farmers in every corner of the world. This geopolitical tension is not only blocking food supply routes but also severely disrupting investment and production stability in the agricultural sector. As a result, increased food production costs are reducing the purchasing power of ordinary people, further exacerbating food insecurity.
Experts have long warned that increasing food insecurity can heighten social instability. When people fail to secure enough food for their families, they often engage in disputes over land, water, and other limited resources, or they are forced to migrate elsewhere in search of safe haven. In countries with fragile economies and weak governance systems, such pressures can lead to social unrest and even armed conflict. This situation also calls into question the stability of governments and creates opportunities for armed groups to recruit new members, further complicating the situation.
Recently, Laura Mayoral, Hannes Mueller, and their colleagues conducted new research titled the 'Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index' (CADI). This research has mapped how climate change is reshaping agricultural productivity worldwide. Mueller, a researcher at the Barcelona School of Economics, stated that tropical regions are suffering the most damage. He cited countries such as Australia, Argentina, Moldova, Nigeria, Romania, the United States, and Sudan, where the impact of agricultural damage is already evident. According to him, the situation in North Africa is dire, and more attention should be paid to this region.
However, the CADI research also pointed to an unexpected reality: improvements in agricultural productivity can also increase the risk of violence. Mueller stated that the core issue is not just food scarcity, but change itself. Climate crises and other shocks not only impoverish some regions but also create new opportunities, altering the value of land and resources. In some places, land previously considered marginal becomes more productive and valuable. And this new value attracts investors and creates intense competition over ownership and access.
This complex situation suggests that even countries that appear to benefit overall may face new tensions. For example, even if Sudan forecasts an increase in food production, it could lead to new conflicts if resources are not distributed equitably. Within the next twenty-five years, nearly half of the world's population could live in regions where agricultural land produces less food. These pressures can weaken governments, cause mass migration, and make it easier for armed groups to recruit fighters. In societies already unstable, such factors can push them further into crisis. Therefore, coordinated and peaceful solutions are needed to address this global challenge.
