Since the late 1970s, obesity has been identified as a severe public health problem in the United States, continuously on the rise. However, recent signs suggest that a significant shift is on the horizon for this long-standing trend. The rapid increase in the use of new weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy is considered a major factor behind this potential change. Experts are now questioning: are these medications truly creating an effective turning point in the fight against obesity?
Benjamin Reider, an epidemiologist at Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, who researches health trends using large datasets, sees the potential for this change. According to him, "We are seeing signs that a groundbreaking change is imminent." He and his colleagues published a study in 2024 based on data from over 16 million adults, which indicated that the prevalence of obesity decreased in 2023 for the first time in over a decade. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey also indicated a slight decrease between 2021 and 2023. Some more recent surveys have also provided evidence supporting this downward trend.
This positive change is occurring at a time when a new class of weight-loss drugs has entered the market. These GLP-1 agonist drugs, such as Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound, have rapidly gained popularity in the United States in recent years. From 2021 to early 2026, the number of their prescriptions has more than quadrupled. Some active ingredients in these medications were initially developed for the treatment of type-2 diabetes. They work by mimicking a naturally occurring gut hormone, which increases feelings of fullness and slows down the process of stomach emptying. As a result, many patients have been able to achieve significant weight loss.
Reider believes that the impact of these drugs was naturally reflected in the data, and he "can say with moderate confidence that the drugs themselves are having an effect." Peminda Cabandugama, an endocrinologist and spokesperson for 'The Obesity Society,' an organization that supports obesity professionals, believes there is "strong evidence showing a significant reduction in obesity." According to her, these drugs are playing an effective role in individual weight loss.
In a written statement to DW, Cabandugama noted that "the general perception is that the increasing use of GLP-1 drugs and their combinations, as well as recent attention to the importance of weight management, have played a significant and direct role in reducing the prevalence of obesity." According to her, the availability of these new drugs and increased awareness among people about weight control have collectively added a new dimension to the fight against obesity.
However, Reider pointed out the lack of definitive evidence regarding the causal relationship in this context. He does not doubt that the drugs have helped many individuals lose weight, but he told DW that it is "still too early to say" whether this will lead to "a stabilization, [...] a reduction [...] or a slower decline over the next 20 years" and what its overall impact on the general population will be. According to him, more time and data are needed to monitor its long-term impact on a broader public health trend.
Cabandugama believes that the current statistics may also be influenced by lifestyle changes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. She noted that "these trends are likely the combined result of multiple factors, including increased use of anti-obesity medications, post-pandemic behavioral changes, growing awareness about the importance of weight management, and so on." This means that not only the use of drugs but also overall lifestyle and increased health awareness are contributing to this positive change.
Some US researchers, however, do not believe that obesity rates will permanently decrease. They believe that this trend might be temporary and its long-term effects could be different. Nevertheless, current evidence offers a new ray of hope and marks the beginning of a new chapter in the long-standing battle against obesity, though more research and time are needed to ascertain its full outcomes.
